2026 World Cup: The review
When you hear hoofbeats, don’t expect to see a zebra.
It’s now been three weeks since the Netherlands’ short but far from sweet 2026 World Cup campaign came to an end, and as we all anxiously - and very impatiently, if you’re anything like me - await the appointment of a new manager and the dawn of a new era, I thought I’d share some reflections on that campaign.
When I told people prior to the tournament that I was fairly confident Oranje would be knocked out in the round of 32, most were surprised given that our squad was objectively very strong, but I wasn’t trying to be bold or clever; on the contrary, I was playing it safe.
Occam’s razor is a philosophy emphasising that, when searching for answers, you should just go with the simplest explanation. If you hear hoofbeats coming, it could be a zebra, but you’re best off banking on seeing the much more common sight of a horse. And if you see Ronald Koeman’s Netherlands on a football pitch with a strong opponent, they could win, but you’re best off banking on them losing.
It’s that philosophy that made me predict that we’d go out to Morocco in the round of 32 from the moment the draw was made in 2025, and that left me unsurprised and somewhat unmoved by our World Cup as a whole.
I’d planned to do Clockwork Oranje pieces and podcasts during it, and while I didn’t do so partially due to personal circumstances and my day job with Flashscore getting very busy, I also just didn’t have that much to say. As we had for the entirety of Koeman’s second tenure, we beat teams ranked significantly lower than us and failed to beat teams ranked in the world’s top 25. Everything just went as logic had suggested it would.
Following that same philosophy when reflecting on how things unfolded though, I’m more positive.
I’ve seen talk of fundamental issues in Dutch football. That Dutch players just don’t have the mentality required to win. That the nation just isn’t producing enough talent anymore. That there needs to be a huge rethink and sweeping changes. But again, I believe the simplest explanation: We just didn’t have a top manager.
Sure, we could do with a bit more quality in attack, but in terms of individual talent, our defensive and midfield options are as good as anyone’s, and we have more players playing in the world’s top leagues than ever.
As for mentality, it was only four years ago with a similar group of players that we showed incredible spirit and composure to score two late goals and take Argentina to extra-time. At the last Euros, we overcame a strong Turkey side and a stadium cheering them on to reach the semis.
What held us back this time around wasn’t talent or mentality, but tactics. A coach who was incapable of making us both solid at the back and threatening in attack; he could only do one or the other.
Koeman was able to get away with that in his first spell, because he could rely on a prime Virgil van Dijk to single-handedly handle attacks if he wanted to push for a goal, and a prime Memphis Depay to single-handedly create and convert chances if he wanted to play more defensively, but while he had a better squad on the whole in his second spell, he didn’t have such generational talents to rely on.
I also just don’t think Koeman’s heart was in it. Unlike other coaches, he didn’t give the impression in press conference or on the touchline that the job was his life, something he was willing to give his everything to. Understandably, he had a much more important matter to focus on, with his wife suffering from cancer.
I’m glad that he’ll now be able to spend more time with her, as he’s clearly wanted to for a while, immensely grateful for everything he’s given to Dutch football - we may well not have won our only major trophy if not for his ability as a player - and excited to have someone else at the helm.
Who will that someone be? Well, given he’s the best Dutch coach available and he’s the only one that the press (Sky Germany) have confirmed has been approached by the KNVB, Occam’s razor would suggest it will be Arne Slot.
That being said, I’m not as confident in following such a philosophy in this regard. Talks between the two are taking a while, there’s been lots of talk that Slot has reservations about entering international football so early in his career, and Nigel de Jong sure does like Michael Reiziger…
Regardless of who it is though, I don’t think they have to worry about a weak Dutch mentality or the nation not providing them with enough talent; they just have to get the best out of the players they have.
If they can do so, the sky is the limit.
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